West Should Not Fall for Putin’s ‘Red Lines’

The transition period between the Biden and Trump administrations will be a dangerous time for Europe. Both Russia and Ukraine understand that the incoming Trump White House will take a different approach to the conflict, but there is profound uncertainty about the form that difference will take. As a result, both parties to Russia’s war of territorial expansion know they have a short window to shape the conditions on the ground in advantageous ways in advance of January 20.

The Biden administration, which is as in the dark about the incoming administration’s outlook toward the war in Europe as anyone else, has reluctantly consented to loosening the reins on its Ukrainian partners. This weekend, the Biden White House finally consented (after months of dithering) to allow Ukrainian forces to use U.S.-provided ordnance to strike targets inside Russia where the invasion of its territory is being staged and weapons used to target Ukrainian population centers are stocked.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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The transition period between the Biden and Trump administrations will be a dangerous time for Europe. Both Russia and Ukraine understand that the incoming Trump White House will take a different approach to the conflict, but there is profound uncertainty about the form that difference will take. As a result, both parties to Russia’s war of territorial expansion know they have a short window to shape the conditions on the ground in advantageous ways in advance of January 20.

The Biden administration, which is as in the dark about the incoming administration’s outlook toward the war in Europe as anyone else, has reluctantly consented to loosening the reins on its Ukrainian partners. This weekend, the Biden White House finally consented (after months of dithering) to allow Ukrainian forces to use U.S.-provided ordnance to strike targets inside Russia where the invasion of its territory is being staged and weapons used to target Ukrainian population centers are stocked.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.