The Wishful Thinking of Surgical Strikes

Can air power change a regime’s character and orientation?

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A U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Lightning II attached to the “Black Knights” of Marine Fighter Attack Squadron VMFA-314 is staged for flight operations on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) in support of Operation Epic Fury, March 3, 2026.

U.S. Navy

‘This is not a regime change war,” said Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, “but the regime has changed.” We can change Iran without changing it. It’s a magical form of surgical strikes. The hostile theocratic state remains what it is at the cellular level, but the violent application of force changes its comportment, its character, its geopolitical orientation — call it the trans-ing of Iran.

President Trump and military planners seem to have carried into Iran confidence born of their operation in Caracas earlier this year, in which special forces and a highly calibrated air assault led to the arrest and removal of Nicolás Maduro. In Venezuela, the U.S. government then worked with former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, as acting president. Trump said the U.S. had identified a number of people who might lead Iran going forward but admitted they might have all been killed in the initial barrage of strikes.

Michael Brendan Dougherty

About the Author

Michael Brendan Dougherty

Michael Brendan Dougherty is a senior writer at National Review Online.

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