The world population will likely shrink in your lifetime. The United Nations Population Division estimates that the world’s total fertility rate dropped to 2.3 children per woman in 2022 (the most recent year for which data are available) and appears set on a trajectory to soon dip below the replacement rate of 2.1, which is needed to keep the population stable.
Polling by Redfield & Wilton Strategies shows that 58 percent of Americans are concerned about declining birth rates, with that share rising to 72 percent among those aged 18 to 24. Americans aren’t the only ones — the number of countries with an explicit policy objective to increase fertility is growing. But many proposed ways to boost the birth rate seem to betray a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the decline.
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