China-Taiwan Tensions: Isolating Taiwan Makes War More Likely

Writing for the New York Times, my American Enterprise Institute colleague Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that the United States must work to “restore” a “delicate balance of deterrence and reassurance” in order to avoid war with China over Taiwan. She is right to raise concerns about presiding trends in the Taiwan Strait. She correctly notes that “it was China that began rocking the boat first,” emphasizing Beijing’s turn to military coercion and “other pressure tactics” beginning in 2016. Mastro also points to a series of American actions — most notably President Biden’s repeated suggestions that he would use force to defend Taiwan — that leave Beijing concerned that Washington may be embarking on a fundamental shift away from its traditionally cautious approach to Taiwan policy.

Mastro neglects to fully consider, however, why China began rocking the boat in the first place. And because her policy prescription entails that Washington accept Beijing’s coercion of Taiwan while being complicit in Taiwan’s international isolation, it may ultimately make war more likely.

MM

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Michael Mazza

Michael Mazza is a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior nonresident fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute.

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Writing for the New York Times, my American Enterprise Institute colleague Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that the United States must work to “restore” a “delicate balance of deterrence and reassurance” in order to avoid war with China over Taiwan. She is right to raise concerns about presiding trends in the Taiwan Strait. She correctly notes that “it was China that began rocking the boat first,” emphasizing Beijing’s turn to military coercion and “other pressure tactics” beginning in 2016. Mastro also points to a series of American actions — most notably President Biden’s repeated suggestions that he would use force to defend Taiwan — that leave Beijing concerned that Washington may be embarking on a fundamental shift away from its traditionally cautious approach to Taiwan policy.

Mastro neglects to fully consider, however, why China began rocking the boat in the first place. And because her policy prescription entails that Washington accept Beijing’s coercion of Taiwan while being complicit in Taiwan’s international isolation, it may ultimately make war more likely.