Trump & GOP: The Need To Unite After 2020

There will be more lessons to draw from the 2020 election as the vote-counting proceeds, and after the two Georgia Senate runoffs decide control of the Senate. For now, we know that (1) turnout was extremely high for both parties; (2) Republicans had easily the better night than Democrats below the presidential level, with many Republican candidates running ahead of Donald Trump; (3) Trump and some down-ticket Republicans did surprisingly well with non-white voters, particularly Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas; (4) the presidential race was extremely close in four states Donald Trump carried narrowly in 2016 (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina), two that he carried more comfortably in 2016 (Arizona and Georgia) and one he lost in 2016 (Nevada); (5) Trump held more easily onto three traditional swing states he flipped in 2016 (Florida, Ohio, and Iowa); and (6) Trump has almost certainly lost reelection, mainly on the strength of losing the Midwest trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but possibly losing Georgia and/or Arizona as well.

So, here is the story of the last ten years. Republicans won big in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, but fell short at the presidency in 2012. In 2016, in a mostly low-turnout election, Republicans down-ticket ran ahead of Trump by winning a bunch of voters who were able to distinguish the rest of the party from Trump, while a smaller but also significant number of voters in geographically important places in the Midwest came out to give Trump the presidency while not voting straight-ticket Republican. In 2018, in a very high-turnout midterm election, Republicans made gains in the Senate while getting their clocks cleaned in House and gubernatorial races, due largely to hemorrhaging college-educated white suburbanites, especially women, who had backed the party in 2012 and voted down-ticket Republican in 2016. In 2020, we saw 2016’s pattern mostly repeat itself in a much higher-turnout race. Yet, throughout this period, there have been few occasions when Republicans commanded a national popular majority, and then only in midterms such as 2010 and 2014.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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There will be more lessons to draw from the 2020 election as the vote-counting proceeds, and after the two Georgia Senate runoffs decide control of the Senate. For now, we know that (1) turnout was extremely high for both parties; (2) Republicans had easily the better night than Democrats below the presidential level, with many Republican candidates running ahead of Donald Trump; (3) Trump and some down-ticket Republicans did surprisingly well with non-white voters, particularly Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas; (4) the presidential race was extremely close in four states Donald Trump carried narrowly in 2016 (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina), two that he carried more comfortably in 2016 (Arizona and Georgia) and one he lost in 2016 (Nevada); (5) Trump held more easily onto three traditional swing states he flipped in 2016 (Florida, Ohio, and Iowa); and (6) Trump has almost certainly lost reelection, mainly on the strength of losing the Midwest trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but possibly losing Georgia and/or Arizona as well.

So, here is the story of the last ten years. Republicans won big in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, but fell short at the presidency in 2012. In 2016, in a mostly low-turnout election, Republicans down-ticket ran ahead of Trump by winning a bunch of voters who were able to distinguish the rest of the party from Trump, while a smaller but also significant number of voters in geographically important places in the Midwest came out to give Trump the presidency while not voting straight-ticket Republican. In 2018, in a very high-turnout midterm election, Republicans made gains in the Senate while getting their clocks cleaned in House and gubernatorial races, due largely to hemorrhaging college-educated white suburbanites, especially women, who had backed the party in 2012 and voted down-ticket Republican in 2016. In 2020, we saw 2016’s pattern mostly repeat itself in a much higher-turnout race. Yet, throughout this period, there have been few occasions when Republicans commanded a national popular majority, and then only in midterms such as 2010 and 2014.