There’s No Disaster-Proofing the 2024 Election

No matter who wins in November, a cascading series of crises lies ahead.

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Left: Former president Donald Trump attends trial at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City, May 30, 2024. Right: President Joe Biden holds a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Paris, France, June 7, 2024.

Steven Hirsch, Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

If you’re convinced of the virtues of your candidate for the White House and the evils of the other guy — confident enough in your capacity to judge character and your candidate’s capacity to navigate the political landscape over the next four years — this isn’t the piece for you. This is a piece for the “double haters.”

There aren’t many of us. Only about 16 to 20 percent of the potential electorate, depending on the poll, expresses negative views toward both parties’ presumptive presidential nominees. But in recent presidential elections, we’ve punched above our weight. In 2016, roughly one-fifth of the electorate was composed of “double haters,” and they broke for Trump. They were a far smaller percentage of the electorate in 2020 at just 3 percent, a factor that is likely attributable to Joe Biden’s high favorability rating at the time. And today — much like 2016 — both candidates are once again viewed negatively by a healthy portion of the electorate, and for good reason.

Noah Rothman

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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