Trump & Conservatives: What Reelection Loss Would Mean

There are many, many ways to try to measure the 2020 presidential race. How well is Donald Trump doing in the states he needs to win compared with Joe Biden, such as Arizon a and Michiga n? (Not well.) How well is Donald Trump doing with the demographic groups he needs to retain, such as suburban mom s and the elderl y? (Not well.) Does the campaign have a record of accomplishment that energizes his base and a vision for the future that excites independents? (Not really.) Is the country going through a crisis? (Yes.) But is it giving the incumbent high marks for handling it, indicating an unwillingness to change horses before the race? (No, not at all.)

Those indicators are all ominous for Donald Trump. They’re ominous for Republicans attached to him, and for the conservative causes that rise and fall with the GOP’s fortunes.

About the Author

Michael Brendan Dougherty

Michael Brendan Dougherty is a senior writer at National Review Online.

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There are many, many ways to try to measure the 2020 presidential race. How well is Donald Trump doing in the states he needs to win compared with Joe Biden, such as Arizon a and Michiga n? (Not well.) How well is Donald Trump doing with the demographic groups he needs to retain, such as suburban mom s and the elderl y? (Not well.) Does the campaign have a record of accomplishment that energizes his base and a vision for the future that excites independents? (Not really.) Is the country going through a crisis? (Yes.) But is it giving the incumbent high marks for handling it, indicating an unwillingness to change horses before the race? (No, not at all.)

Those indicators are all ominous for Donald Trump. They’re ominous for Republicans attached to him, and for the conservative causes that rise and fall with the GOP’s fortunes.