President-elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese president Xi Jinping to the U.S. presidential inauguration ceremony on January 20. Trump says that he has a great relationship with Xi and understands China, and he seems comfortable with audacious moves. Audacity has its place in statecraft, to be sure. But Trump seems to think that the U.S.–China relationship can be reduced down to “a deal” and that Xi will want “a deal” after tariff pressures force him into one. Trump and some in his circle also have begun to hint that Taiwan is taking advantage of the U.S. and isn’t paying its fair share for all the support the United States provides.
This worldview is probably not how things will unfold over the next few years. It is possible and even likely that Beijing will offer some kind of concession that will allow President Trump to claim a negotiating win, even as Xi and team laugh up their sleeves and continue to show contempt for the U.S. and the world, threaten strategic U.S. interests, and generally do as they please.
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