Trump’s Iran Miscalculation

Madman theory doesn’t work against other madmen.

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., March 31, 2026.

Evan Vucci/Reuters

The cease-fire in the Iran war is an ambiguous outcome.

The Iranian regime has taken a pounding and will not, for a long time, be in a position to project power globally at close to its capacity back in February. Or better, at close to its capacity early last year — because we should see the latest fighting as a continuation of last June’s Twelve-Day War, in which the U.S. and Israel took out Iran’s nuclear program and air defenses.

Andrew C. McCarthy

About the Author

Andrew C. McCarthy

Andrew C. McCarthy is a senior fellow at National Review Institute, an NR contributing editor, and author of Ball of Collusion: The Plot to Rig an Election and Destroy a Presidency.

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