Trump’s New Intelligence Problem

The ‘deep state’ abides, in a different form.

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President Donald Trump speaks next to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, during a press conference at a NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, June 25, 2025.

Yves Herman/Reuters

No one at the Pentagon who compiled the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) preliminary, “low confidence” assessment of the battle damage done by the United States to Iran’s nuclear facilities intended that analysis as a political document. Those who leaked this highly classified review almost certainly did, though. And their intention was likely to embarrass the administration in which they serve.

CNN was first to report on the document, which concluded in so many words that the strikes were a failure. “One of the people said the centrifuges are largely ‘intact,’” the report read. “Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes.” According to one unnamed figure who summarized the DIA’s findings, the strikes set Iran’s nuclear program “back maybe a few months, tops.”

Noah Rothman

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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