Vance Will Have to Choose Between Tucker and the Presidency

JD Vance wants very much to be president. The further we get into Donald Trump’s second term, the more Vance’s ambitions to succeed him become the dominant story in our politics. Which means that it’s time to start thinking about what he might do to advance — or derail — those ambitions.

Whether Vance has a realistic prospect of winning the presidency in 2028 (assuming that Trump serves out his term) depends heavily on the unusual place we inhabit in the political cycle, after Trump became only the second man to return to the presidency after being voted out of it. Only one man — Martin Van Buren — has previously made the transition Vance seeks, from new second-term vice president to election in his own right without the president dying in office. As of now, Vance still has pole position for the 2028 Republican nomination. He is likely to keep the upper hand unless one of two things happens in the next 26 months: he falls out with Donald Trump, or (far less likely) Trump suffers a dramatic loss of credibility with Republican voters.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

Featured Tags

JD Vance wants very much to be president. The further we get into Donald Trump’s second term, the more Vance’s ambitions to succeed him become the dominant story in our politics. Which means that it’s time to start thinking about what he might do to advance — or derail — those ambitions.

Whether Vance has a realistic prospect of winning the presidency in 2028 (assuming that Trump serves out his term) depends heavily on the unusual place we inhabit in the political cycle, after Trump became only the second man to return to the presidency after being voted out of it. Only one man — Martin Van Buren — has previously made the transition Vance seeks, from new second-term vice president to election in his own right without the president dying in office. As of now, Vance still has pole position for the 2028 Republican nomination. He is likely to keep the upper hand unless one of two things happens in the next 26 months: he falls out with Donald Trump, or (far less likely) Trump suffers a dramatic loss of credibility with Republican voters.