One of the hazards of projecting national trends from a small number of off-year elections is that they may take place in states and localities that are unrepresentative of the country. Democrats have been doing poorly so far this year in special elections, yet they did very well, despite a summer-long scare in the polls, in the California recall. The campaign to recall Gavin Newsom led in the polls all August, trailed by 14.5 points in the final polls by mid September, and lost by 27 in the actual voting. That outcome should also remind us of the hazards of getting overexcited about early polling.
The big-ticket races this November are all in blue areas, such as the governor and House of Delegates (the lower house of the state legislature) in Virginia, the gubernatorial race in New Jersey, and the mayor’s race in New York City. But that also means that there can be warning signs even if Democrats pull out victories across the board.
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