Trump’s Political Clock: We Don’t Know Where We Are in the Political Cycle

Everyone in American politics lives by the clock. The political clock is remorseless, and it is rarely defeated. But how do you follow the clock when you can’t tell what time it is?

Perhaps the single most powerful and enduring force in America’s two-party political system is its cyclical nature. Political enthusiasts love to talk about realignments, and permanent majorities, and demographics as destiny. But professionals know that our system far more often follows a predictable metronomic pattern: Power swings toward one party, but as soon as they get it, they begin alienating parts of their coalition and energizing disparate elements in the opposition camp, causing things to swing back in the other direction. This thermostatic response produces certain recognizable patterns in elections:

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Everyone in American politics lives by the clock. The political clock is remorseless, and it is rarely defeated. But how do you follow the clock when you can’t tell what time it is?

Perhaps the single most powerful and enduring force in America’s two-party political system is its cyclical nature. Political enthusiasts love to talk about realignments, and permanent majorities, and demographics as destiny. But professionals know that our system far more often follows a predictable metronomic pattern: Power swings toward one party, but as soon as they get it, they begin alienating parts of their coalition and energizing disparate elements in the opposition camp, causing things to swing back in the other direction. This thermostatic response produces certain recognizable patterns in elections: