What a DeSantis Rebound Looks Like

Ron DeSantis’s campaign is touting Iowa governor Kim Reynolds’s recent endorsement as a sign it’s gaining strength. Critics will contest this, noting that DeSantis remains well behind former president Donald Trump in all polls. That’s true, but it’s also true that Iowa voters have a pattern of deciding very late in the campaign. If Reynolds’s endorsement is followed up with strong contrasts with Trump that attract religious and establishment voters, DeSantis might yet have a chance.

Iowa’s habit of late breaks is clear and distinct. In early December 2003, John Kerry and John Edwards were running in third and fourth place, with 9 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Six weeks later, they finished one-two with 37 and 33 percent. That’s a stunning turnaround in a very short time.

About the Author

Henry Olsen

Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and the author of The Working-Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism.

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Ron DeSantis’s campaign is touting Iowa governor Kim Reynolds’s recent endorsement as a sign it’s gaining strength. Critics will contest this, noting that DeSantis remains well behind former president Donald Trump in all polls. That’s true, but it’s also true that Iowa voters have a pattern of deciding very late in the campaign. If Reynolds’s endorsement is followed up with strong contrasts with Trump that attract religious and establishment voters, DeSantis might yet have a chance.

Iowa’s habit of late breaks is clear and distinct. In early December 2003, John Kerry and John Edwards were running in third and fourth place, with 9 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Six weeks later, they finished one-two with 37 and 33 percent. That’s a stunning turnaround in a very short time.

About the Author

Henry Olsen

Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and the author of The Working-Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism.