What Went Wrong, and Right, on Election Night

A good night for incumbents, few poll surprises, Republican recruiting woes, and the outlook for 2024 are all part of the midterm story.

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Supporters of Republican Ohio U.S. Senate candidate J. D. Vance celebrate his victory during his 2022 U.S. midterm elections night party in Columbus, Ohio, November 8, 2022.

Gaelen Morse/Reuters

What happened? That’s always the question after an election, but especially after one that didn’t go as many people expected. It will take some time to pore through the data and consider what worked and what didn’t, but here are some key early takeaways on what happened and what it means going forward.

A good night for incumbents: With 68 percent of voters’ thinking the country was on the wrong track and only 24 percent saying otherwise, you might have thought that the difference between a good Republican night and a mediocre one would be that Democrats succeeded in turning a sour mood into a bipartisan anti-incumbent outcome. Nothing could be further from the truth. At this writing, it appears that all the incumbents in both parties in the Senate and gubernatorial races won, with the possible exceptions of Nevada governor Steve Sisolak, Nevada senator Catherine Cortez Masto, Georgia senator Raphael Warnock, and Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski. Those are far from certain losses: Neither Nevada race has been called yet, Warnock currently leads and will go to a runoff against Herschel Walker, and the Alaska race is nowhere near counted.

Dan McLaughlin

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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