Breakdown of Trump’s Win In The Rust Belt States

In assessing how Donald Trump won back the presidency, it is useful to examine where he won it. While the numbers are not yet final nationwide due to the perennially slow-counting California, we’re now close enough to a complete count in the key battleground states to warrant a closer look at the numbers (with statewide and county data courtesy of David Leip’s Election Atlas).

This election was, from the outset, contested in seven swing states: one (North Carolina) that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, one (Nevada) that he lost both times, three (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) that Trump flipped in 2016 and lost in 2020, and two (Arizona and Georgia) longtime Republican strongholds that Trump lost in 2020. In the polls, Trump led somewhat convincingly in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and narrowly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin until Joe Biden dropped out, after which things looked tighter the rest of the way but ended up about where the polls had projected them back in July.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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In assessing how Donald Trump won back the presidency, it is useful to examine where he won it. While the numbers are not yet final nationwide due to the perennially slow-counting California, we’re now close enough to a complete count in the key battleground states to warrant a closer look at the numbers (with statewide and county data courtesy of David Leip’s Election Atlas).

This election was, from the outset, contested in seven swing states: one (North Carolina) that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, one (Nevada) that he lost both times, three (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) that Trump flipped in 2016 and lost in 2020, and two (Arizona and Georgia) longtime Republican strongholds that Trump lost in 2020. In the polls, Trump led somewhat convincingly in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and narrowly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin until Joe Biden dropped out, after which things looked tighter the rest of the way but ended up about where the polls had projected them back in July.