Where Trump Won: The Sun Belt

In the South and the West, as in the Midwest, the Trump campaign’s victory depended upon the big cities and the suburbs.

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Former president Donald Trump gestures during a campaign event in Las Vegas, Nev., June 9, 2024.

Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Where did Donald Trump find the votes to sweep all seven battleground states in this presidential election? I previously examined that question by looking at the county-by-county breakdowns of the three Rust Belt swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In this second installment, I will look at the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.

But first, here’s another illustration from the Rust Belt states. To drive home my point about Pennsylvania, here’s a visualization of the counties where the margin swung at least 1,500 votes in Trump’s direction compared with 2020, or (in three cases, marked in blue) swung very slightly against Trump. The geographic distribution of the biggest swings (the largest in red, then in brown) are striking:

Dan McLaughlin

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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