Where’s the Off-Year Blue Wave?

Republicans obviously would like to celebrate victories in Tuesday’s New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections. But they can celebrate almost as much if the GOP nominees simply lose by as much as or less than President Trump lost each state by last year.

That seems counterintuitive. After all, a loss is still a loss. It’s important, though, to put contests into the context of their political demography. A narrow loss in a Democratic state implies a pro-GOP tilt even though it wasn’t enough.