Voter registration data for the Aug. 24 primary was released this morning, and the Orlando Sentinel is calling it a win for the GOP, saying the Democratic surge that pushed Obama into office is “losing steam.”

Alas, that is a short-sighted view of the facts.

First, a longer look at Florida voter data shows that Democrats have historically held an advantage in numbers, but in the past decade it didn’t surpass 450,000 until 2008. Though the effect is flagging a bit, that the Democrats’ advantage remains above 600k shows that the Obama wave has, at least to some degree, persisted.

DEMOCRATIC VOTER ADVANTAGE 346,156 2000 primary 1 351,753 2000 primary 2 372,843 2000 general 345,064 2002 primary 359,857 2002 general 360,987 2004 primary 368,757 2004 general 299,876 2006 primary 283,856 2006 general 465,617 2008 primary 657,775 2008 general 612,773 2010 primary

Moreover, of the six congressional seats considered “in play” for the 2010 election, only one shows a higher ratio of GOP voters than it did in 2008. One is a split, showing an increase in the GOP’s voter share from the 2008 general, but a decrease from the primary. The four others show fewer Republican voters for each Democrat, compared to the last election.

And in one case — FL-22, where Allen West is on track to challenge incumbent Ron Klein — the 50 percent threshold has been crossed. In other words, since the 2002 election, Republicans have held a numbers advantage in the district in every election. But now, for the 2010 primary, registered Democrats are up by more than 1,000 votes.

KEY DISTRICTS – % of TWO-PARTY VOTERS REGISTERED WITH GOP* District 2008 Primary 2008 General 2010 Primary 2 37.74 37.53 39.05 (up) 8 50.33 48.66 48.41 (down) 12 47.02 46.06 46.12 (split) 16 52.78 52.06 51.82 (down) 22 51.28 50.47 49.83 (down) 24 53.38 51.93 51.83 (down) *note that third parties and independents are not included in these numbers

For sure, Florida is no Massachusetts just yet. And the ebb and flow of votes as candidates inspire or frustrate voters has a far greater effect on election outcomes than pure registrations alone. But, this year, the numbers for Florida Republicans are not as good as some would think.