A new Franklin & Marshall poll has Pat Toomey leading Democrat Joe Sestak by 9 points amongst those most likely to vote in November. Among registered voters in general, Toomey’s lead shrinks to only 3 points:

An interesting finding in the F&M poll relates to the 2008 presidential race results, [F&M pollster G. Terry] Madonna said. “Sixty-six percent of respondents who voted for John McCain plan to vote for Toomey, while only half of those who voted for President Obama plan to vote for Sestak,” he said. [emphasis added]

This would seem to confirm the idea that independents (who overwhelming dislike Obama) will be the deciders. Sestak’s challenge will be de-linking himself from an Obama-Pelosi agenda with which he has voted 97 percent of the time.