Keystone Tuesday Evening Update

Nate Silver has an absolute must-read on why he’s rating the Pennsylvania senate race as 92 percent likely to mean a Pat Toomey victory, despite still being four weeks from Election Day.
Jack Wagner, auditor general of Pennsylvania, has potentially injected a new line of debate into the gubernatorial race. Wagner held a press conference today to call for charter school funding to be restructured, saying the existing model resulted in waste and did not represent the actual cost of educating a student.
Americans United for Life is spending on a radio ad campaign criticizing three of the most vulnerable Democrat incumbents for supporting a health bill they say expands taxpayer funding of abortion. Kathy Dahlkemper, Chris Carney, and Paul Kanjorski are in their sights.
Keith Rothfus is deploying children in an ad called “Allowance,” hitting incumbent Jason Altmire for supporting burgeoning federal spending. Rothfus has an outside chance to take down Altmire if Election Day turns out to be especially good for Republicans.
Chris Carney, despite weeks of embarrassing revelations in the press for his opponent Tom Marino, is polling in a functional dead heat. Nearly 20 percent are still undecided, with the race favoring Carney 43-40 percent.

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