Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin has maintained a small lead over Republican senate candidate John Raese, according to a new Rasmussen poll released today. Fifty percent of likely voters support Manchin, while 46 percent back Raese.

The race is still considered a toss-up by Rasmussen.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, anticipates the results from West Virginia will indicate whether the GOP can capture the senate or not. “If Manchin holds on to a narrow victory as projected, it means the Republicans will have a tough time winning control of the U.S. Senate,” Rasmussen said in a statement. “If, on other hand, Raese manages to pull off an upset, it means the Republicans will have an even bigger night than expected and will be favored to take the Senate.”

The poll surveyed 750 likely voters and was conducted on October 31. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.