A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer at 49 percent and Carly Fiorina at 46 percent. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.

The race is considered a “Toss-Up” by Rasmussen.

While recent polls have given Boxer an overall lead of 6.2 points, according to RealClearPolitics, many of those polls have been assuming an electorate with a much higher percentage of Democratic participation than seems likely, considering how much more enthusiastic GOP voters are this year. Over at The Weekly Standard, Jeffrey Anderson has a good piece about how misjudging the electorate can impact polls. In fact, he figures that a more Republican electorate (which seems plausible) would lead to Boxer having only a 1-point lead over Fiorina.

Fiorina, who had been hospitalized for the past couple of days to be treated for an infection related to cancer-related surgery she had earlier this year, is back on the campaign trail today.