Election Day is close. After months of reporting, commentary, and speculation, we’re staring to count down in hours — not days — the time remaining before the polls open on Tuesday.

With Rasmussen and Muhlenberg both showing Pat Toomey holding a statistically insignificant lead over Joe Sestak in the Keystone State, Battle ‘10 turns to Dr. Paul Kengor to give us some perspective on the race. Kengor is a professor at Grove City College in western Pennsylvania and director of the Center for Vision and Values.

Kengor favors Toomey, viewing Sestak as out of sync, on certain issues, with Pennsylvania values. Pennsylvanians “tend to pick senators who are either moderate Republicans or moderate Democrats,” Kengor explains.

“Look at Arlen Specter. He was a liberal Republican who became a moderate Democrat in the end. Rick Santorum was a very conservative Republican, [while] Sen. Bob Casey was a moderate, pro-life Democrat, as was his father.”

“The abortion issue is very important in Pennsylvania,” says Kengor. “I don’t think many outside of Pennsylvania realize the social conservatism in the state.”

As evidence, Kengor cites the late Gov. Robert Casey, who was infamously denied the podium during the 1992 Democratic convention due to his strident pro-life convictions.

“Sestak is very bad on the abortion issue,” says Kengor.

“I haven’t heard much made about that during this campaign,” Kengor reflects, “but it matters, it matters to Pennsylvanians.” Pat Toomey, by contrast, “is a pro-life conservative Republican.”

“Joe Sestak makes Arlen Specter look like Mother Teresa” on abortion, Kengor asserts. “It’s just ugly.”

Sestak “really shouldn’t do well at all” in traditional Democrat, pro-life Roman Catholic and Protestant areas, predicts Kengor, noting that his “impressive military background” would typically appeal to Pennsylvania’s traditional Democrats.

“I see Toomey winning, but you never know. Pennsylvania has been such a disappointment for Republicans.”

But “if conservatives do well any time in Pennsylvania,” concludes Kengor, “it’ll be this year.”