As campaigns are heading into the home stretch, there are a slew of new polls out that, overall, paint a grim picture for incumbents and Democrats across the commonwealth. We recently took a look at the Senate race, where despite Joe Sestak’s deployment of rosy internal numbers, his real-world numbers still seem poor. And the gubernatorial contest between Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato remains unchanged, with Corbett leading by 10.

Let’s get to the congressional races:

PA-3 — Mike Kelly v. Kathy Dahlkemper

Likely GOP — First-term blue dog Democrat Dahlkemper trails her Republican challenger Mike Kelly by double digits — 13 percent — in this northwestern Pennsylvania district that has traditionally been a conservative-moderate stronghold. Mike Kelly, a lifelong auto salesman, has proven to be adept and menacing; the DCCC withdrew support last week, so barring a major shakeup, Kelly has this one in the bag.

PA-4 — Keith Rothfus v. Jason Altmire

Toss Up — Keith Rothfus is waging a hardscrabble fight for this formerly Republican seat. Jason Altmire took the seat in a somewhat surprise 2006 victory. No significant polling has been conducted in this western Pennsylvania district, but if Election Night turns out as bad for Democrats as things portend, watch PA-4 for a Republican pick-up. Altmire, notably, has spent much of his time running from the Pelosi agenda he initially supported.

PA-7 — Pat Meehan v. Bryan Lentz

Leans GOP — Pat Meehan, former U.S. attorney and friend of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, leads by a slim margin — 3 points — in this southeastern Pennsylvania seat that’s currently held by outgoing Congressman Joe Sestak. Meehan has hammered Lentz over the past few weeks for his flip-flopping on per diems and state-funded cars, and Lentz has struggled despite — or perhaps in part thanks to — an endorsement by President Obama.

PA-8 — Mike Fitzpatrick v. Patrick Murphy

Leans GOP — Mike Fitzpatrick leads incumbent Pat Murphy by 5 points according to the latest poll, released last week. An earlier F&M poll had Fitzpatrick up by 14, and while this is expected to be a tight race, Fitzpatrick seems to have the momentum, even despite a cash on hand disadvantage to the tune of half a million.

PA-10 — Tom Marino v. Chris Carney

Leans GOP — Tom Marino, despite being dogged by allegations of misconduct as a U.S. attorney, has benefited from widespread dissatisfaction with the Democrat status quo in his bid against incumbent Chris Carney. Marino leads by 6, according to a recent poll, but in reality, this race could easily become a toss up as both men jockey in these final two weeks. What Marino has going for him more than anything else is extraordinarily negative favorability numbers among voters for Chris Carney.

PA-11 — Lou Barletta v. Paul Kanjorski

Leans GOP — Lou Barletta, staging his third challenge to 73 year-old Paul Kanjorski, looks like he could pull off a victory this time, though his 2-point lead is slim enough to evaporate by Election Day. Four polls conducted since mid-summer have demonstrated a steadily shrinking lead for Barletta, who has failed to attract any type of national attention to the race.

PA-12 — Tim Burns v. Mark Critz

Likely Dem — Mark Critz won a special election after the death of his former boss, longtime Congressman John Murtha. Tim Burns, the challenger, faces a tough environment in this very pro-pork, pro-Democrat western Pennsylvania region, but even still, Burns heads into Election Day with more than a $200,000 cash advantage. Real Clear Politics puts this race firmly in Democrat hands, with Critz leading by 7.5 points.

PA-13 — Dee Adcock v. Allyson Schwartz

Likely Dem — The only polls released for this race have been dueling internal polls, meaning that all a reasonable observer can do here is presume Schwartz will cruise to re-election in this typically reliable Democrat district. While it’s only gone blue for the past decade, it would take a wave of tremendous strength to pull Adcock into office on Election Night.