In my post yesterday, I presented the “Potential new” composition of each federal court of appeals on the farfetched assumption that all senior-eligible judges stepped down and were replaced by appointees of President Trump. Here I present the more pessimistic scenario in which no senior-eligible judges step down before the 2020 election and a Democratic president takes office in 2021 and is able to replace those judges. (My numbers assume that President Trump fills the current vacancies.)
D.C. Circuit, now 4 R, 7 D, would become 2 R, 9 D
First Circuit, now 2 R, 4 D, would become 1 R, 5 D
Second Circuit, soon to be 6 R, 7 D, would become 5 R, 8 D
Third Circuit, now 7 R, 6 D, 1 V, would become 7 R, 7 D
Fourth Circuit, now 6 R, 9 D, would become 3 R, 12 D
Fifth Circuit, now 11 R, 5 D, 1 V, would become 8 R, 9 D
Sixth Circuit, now 10 R, 6 D, would become 8 R, 8 D
Seventh Circuit, now 9 R, 2 D, would become 5 R, 6 D
Eighth Circuit, now 10 R, 1 D, would become 7 R, 4 D
Ninth Circuit, now 9 R, 16 D, 4 V, would become 8 R, 21 D
Tenth Circuit, now 5 R, 7 D, would become 4 R, 8 D
Eleventh Circuit, now 6 R, 6 D, would become 4 R, 8 D
Federal Circuit, now 4 R, 8 D, would become 1 R, 11 D