Keith Hennessey offers a checklist for viewing tonight’s speech. Among his points:

What did he learn from the August town halls? – Does the President acknowledge the negative feedback, or does he instead say “we had a vigorous debate in August?” Does he characterize this feedback as pushing policy in one direction, or instead as diffuse hubbub? Did the President learn anything in August about what Americans want, and is he adapting the substance of what he wants to reflect that? This matters substantively and politically. If he says “I learned from you the people,” I think he will get a positive reaction. If he says “You were misinformed,” I think many people will be insulted and angered.
Does he explicitly reject bills developed in July to give nervous Democrats cover? – I imagine there are many Congressional Democrats who would like to tell their constituents, “We are doing something new this fall based on what we heard in August. This new bill is different from the one you hated last month.” The substantive changes made from July to September may be less important than the public framing – does the President signal that legislation now will be different than it was two months ago (as a result of learning from citizen feedback)? Doing so may relieve moderate Democrats but upset the bill’s authors and Congressional Democratic leaders, who would interpret it correctly as an admission of failure.