Reader Stephen T. worries:

Do you have any thoughts about how failure/passage of healthcare bodes for “immigration reform,” AKA amnesty for illegal aliens? I have a bad feeling that failure of healthcare will impel Democrats to unite on amnesty in order to hand Obama *some* victory to redeem his loser administration and the Democrat’s record (“We’ve GOT to give this guy a legislative win at something!”) And that will probably be amnesty. In the same vein, the other day Lindsay Graham made pointed statements to the effect that the prolonged healthcare debate was keeping Republicans like him from turning to more important things like immigration reform — which sounded to me (maybe I’m paranoid) like a veiled offer of quid pro quo. Like, “Stop trying to shove Obamacare down our throats and Bush/Rove, Jobs-Americans-Won’t-Do Republicans like me will guarantee your guy a victory on amnesty as a consolation prize.”
Do you foresee any of this happening?

The short answer is “No.” First of all, I think he overstates what Senator Graham was saying last week in his linkage of health care and immigration (see here for the story); rather than offer some kind of guarantee to pass amnesty, Graham was essentially saying “If you guys use reconciliation to pass health care, even I won’t be your cabana boy, and that’s saying something.”

As for the bigger point that the failure of health care would impel Democrats to seek a win on immigration, I find it hard to imagine. I suppose some would offer a reprise of the kamikaze argument — “Now that you’ve tried to save your seat by not voting for health care, guarantee your defeat by voting for amnesty!” Look at what Rep. Jason Altmire told Politico:

“When people come up to me, there is a decided anti-health-reform view,” Altmire said, referring to the conversations he has with people at fairs, restaurants and church festivals in his Pittsburgh-area district. “The calls to my office have been pretty negative, and it’s gaining momentum every day. I’m giving everybody a chance to be heard, but if my district’s not on board with this, I’m not going to be able to vote for this.”

What do you think these guys are going to hear from people at fairs, restaurants, and church festivals if they start debating an amnesty when there’s 10 percent unemployment, Mexico is imploding, and the “virtual fence” is abandoned without being replaced by a real fence?

This Sunday’s illegal-alien march in Washington will make it even harder to move amnesty — there’s going to be a lot of anger, like at the gay-marriage protests that featured signs that could have come from a tea party. Hopefully, there will be lots of Che Guevara posters and “This Is Our Land” demands, along with the American flags that organizers no doubt bought in bulk at Costco to hand out. And Harold Meyerson’s column in the Post offers delicious hints of even better political theater to come:

And if the president doesn’t agree [to push amnesty legislation]? “We will go into the field,” says [Rep. Luis] Gutierrez, “like the civil rights movement and the suffragists did.” “We will escalate,” says Gustavo Torres of Casa de Maryland, “to civil disobedience.”

Civil disobedience! By illegal aliens demanding amnesty! I can’t wait.