Ramesh earlier mentioned a phenomenon raised by the DLC’s Ed Kilgore and by Charlie Cook — that politics watchers older than 40 see the possibility of a tidal wave knocking out the Republicans in November while those under 40 don’t see one. Interesting (though I’m over 40 and don’t see one). One possibility: National landslides used to be a lot more common. The last one was 12 years ago, the Republican takeover of Congress. That was 6 election cycles ago. Before that there was a presidential landslide in 1988 — three cycles earlier. A big shift in Senate control in 1986 — one cycle earlier. A mammoth presidential landslide in 1984 — one cycle earlier. A 26-seat Democratic victory in the House in 1982 — one cycle earlier. A mini-landslide for Reagan in 1980 with a mammoth shift in the Senate — one cycle earlier. A colossal Democratic wave in 1974 — three cycles earlier. A gigantic Nixon landslide — one cycle earlier.

The Older Guys came of age at a time of big swings. There haven’t been big swings since 1994, in part because the Republican realignment took hold and a lot of right-leaning Democrats and independents finally cast in their lot with the GOP. So maybe the younger guys benefit from not having the same kind of historical sense — because the day of the landslide may be past, at least for a while.