Recessions never began with a drop in consumer spending, except when credit controls were imposed (1980) and when price controls collapsed (1953, 1973).
The economy was in recession from March 2001 to November 2001, but consumer spending fell in only the first and last of those months, plus September. Real consumption last November was still 3% higher than a year before — not much below the post-1960 average increase of 3.6%.
We are nonetheless constantly told that consumer spending is the driving force behind economic growth or recession . . .






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