The Scottish vote this week bought the United Kingdom a reprieve, but a quick glance at polling data showing that the majority of those under 55 voted for independence makes it clear that this is not an issue is going away any time soon. If I had to guess, Scottish independence is only a matter of time.

But for now the attention shifts to Catalonia.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard explains:

Each of Europe’s aggrieved clans sent witnesses to Scotland for the vote. Some were nationalities seeking statehood, some more explosively seeking Anschluss with a mother country broken by victors’ cartography after the First World War. The flaming red and yellow Senyera of the Catalans flew over Edinburgh. The German-speakers of the Sud-Tirol sent a delegation, careful not to violate Italian law by speaking too loudly of reunion with Austria. The Corsicans turned up. Flemings who could not make it lit candles on the Scottish Saltire in Brussels.What matters to them is the precedent set by this extraordinary episode. Scotland’s right to self-determination was recognised. The British state allowed events to run their course, vowing to accept the outcome. “It is a great lesson for democracy for the whole world. What we have seen in Scotland is the only way to settle conflicts,” said Artur Mas, the Catalan leader.
“We could have blocked it, said David Cameron, “but I am a democrat. It was right that we respected the SNP’s majority in Holyrood and gave the Scottish people their say….“The Catalans see this as a victory regardless of the result, and I think we are heading for a very nasty crisis,” said Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform. “Madrid is going to block their vote and it may lead to Ghandi-style civic resistance that could bring Catalan cities to a standstill.”
The Catalan drive for independence has its own deep roots, harking back to statehood before the Bourbon conquest in 1714. It turned radical four years ago when the ruling Partido Popular – a party with roots in the Franco regime – exploited economic crisis to settle an old score and roll back Catalonia’s autonomy.
Madrid has banned Catalonia’s pre-secession vote in November, or the “Consulta” as it is known, threatening “all available means” to stop it. The government has the constitution on its side, but critics say that is to hide behind the law in a political dispute that has already gone too far. At least a million Catalans came onto the streets last week for their “Diada” festival in what sounded like a collective roar of protest. Premier Artur Mas aims to press ahead with the vote regardless, invoking the Scottish precedent. “If it had been a Yes in Scotland, the road ahead would have been clearer, but what matters is not the way they voted, but the fact that they did vote. And we are in a stronger position because we have more social support.”
This conflict could perhaps be settled by giving Catalonia the federal status of the Basques, with full powers over income tax and debt issuance. Madrid is instead threatening to suspend Catalan self-government altogether. “I see no way out. Nothing is going to stop the Catalan movement. We’re heading for a train wreck,” said Quim Aranda from the Catalan daily Punt Avui….

The Economist adds:

In the mildest scenario, Mr Mas may go through the motions of rebelling for several weeks before finally bowing to the law. In the most extreme one, Mr Mas could stage an illegal referendum, with police moving in to remove urns and Madrid suspending the Catalan regional government’s right to rule. That is unlikely, but not impossible. Much depends on the attitude of [the leftist separatist party] ERC.
A final option might be for Mr Mas to call early Catalan elections, turning them into a clear demand for an independence referendum, as Scottish leader Alex Salmond did. A large “yes” vote would be hard to ignore. If national elections next year weaken [scandal-plagued Spanish prime minister Mariano] Rajoy or produce a Socialist victory, Madrid might become more malleable. But Mr Mas’s own Democratic Catalan Convergence party (CDC) is likely to do badly in those elections; the likely winner would be the separatist ERC.

The democratic thing would, of course, for the Spanish prime minister to follow David Cameron’s example and allow a referendum, but Mr. Rajoy, a Spanish nationalist with little interest in competing rights of self-determination (ask the Gibraltarians about that) is never likely to agree. Trouble probably lies ahead. Meanwhile Rajoy has tried playing the “European” card against the Catalans.

The BBC reports:

Speaking to members of parliament on Wednesday, Prime Minister Rajoy described referendums like the Scottish example as “a torpedo below the waterline for European integration”.
He said the spirit of the age was integration, and not separation, which was why he would find it very difficult to agree to holding a referendum.

The “spirit of the age’” is, in fact, rather different from what Mr. Rajoy would like Catalans to believe, but he is not alone in his delusion. One of the ideas shared by those running the EU project is that the nation-state is a thing of the past, a belief difficult to reconcile with the reality that there are now more nation-states in existence than ever before. And there are others too waiting to be born. After Catalonia, Flanders? A paradox of the EU is that in this respect its “ever closer union” has been a force for disintegration rather than integration: It has emboldened wannabe states within its borders. Their leaderships have been quick to reassure doubtful voters that the leap for independence comes with a safety net — continued membership of the EU — a line of reasoning that seems to have worked well. Leaving aside the question as to what sort of independence that would then really be, the appeal of this argument explains why Mr. Rajoy was always keen to stress that EU membership for an independent Scotland was not a done deal. He knew how dangerous that precedent could be.

The impact of the EU does not step there. Note this from the BBC report:

Until recently, few Catalans had wanted full independence, but Spain’s painful economic crisis has seen a surge in support for separation.

A major cause of that “painful economic crisis”? Spain’s ill-judged membership of the euro.

And so the unraveling continues.