Barry Rubin (no relation) has penned one of the broadest and most cogent analyses of Middle Eastern politics, and why pessimism is warranted. An excerpt:

Today, Islamism repeats the history of Arab nationalism in remarkable detail whether with exaggerated promises of victory, intoxication with illusionary triumphs, or misapplication of resources. Popularity derived by the demonization of Israel, the United States, and the West by Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah is little different from the demonization by Arab nationalists in the past. In some ways, a world-view so out of touch with reality is collective insanity, but there is much method to those who promulgate such madness. The resistance paradigm is an excellent tool for regime preservation, as it was earlier for Arab nationalist movements, and it is a useful tool to mobilize support for radical Islamist groups. But the cost of such a paradigm is clear: no reform and squandered resources.