From the weekend Journal (which I give myself the weekend to read, thank you):

The Miers fight and the failure to advance Social Security reform teach the same political lesson: Mr. Bush can count on being firmly, and more or less unanimously, opposed by the Democrats, and he can succeed only when he has the strong support of the Republican base. That is the same lesson taught by the 2004 election, in which, despite a strong economy, he was reelected by only 51% to 48%. It seems reasonable to expect that his next Supreme Court nominee will be strongly supported by the base and will, despite vociferous opposition from the Democrats, be confirmed. We’ll know more next week.