How about this? It’s total speculation from outside the three camps.

Boehner and Shadegg are being cordial with each other. You saw Boehner’s nice statement when Shadegg entered the race. And, remember that Shadegg left his current post, pressuring Blunt. So…what if they have a deal—Boehner and Shadegg. If Shadegg makes real support gains in the next few days…maybe Boehner’s already agreed he’s willing to put Shadegg over the top, figuring that this might not be the best moment for Boehner anyway. And he rather be speaker anyway, so, Boehner figures, he could sit a leadership promotion for himself out a year. In which case, he’d be guaranteed Leader Shadegg’s support for his speaker run next year. On the other hand, if Shadegg doesn’t get too much mo in the next few days, Shadegg puts Boehner over the top this year for leader.