One subtext of the current presidential transition—whether missile defense, immigration, the war on terror, domestic security, Iran, Iran, Russia, etc.—has been hints so far that the new administration-elect will metamorphosize in such a way that America will be liked again abroad, and the US on matters international, from the UN to the ICC, will be more attuned to international consensus. While it is always better to speak softly and gently (while carrying an ever bigger stick) both to friends and enemies, and we should welcome the return of popularity, lost in all this are elemental questions like “Did they really dislike us just because of George Bush?” and “Do we really wish some of these creepy regimes to like us?”

Russia will like Obama to the extent he gives it a pass to bully and slowly Finlandize democratic former republics of the Old Soviet Union. China will have no problem with Obama once he understands that Japanese, Korean, Philippine or Taiwanese air space and waters are porous and more international than sovereign. Iran will love us if it can talk its way to the bomb. Europe wants Obama to charm its masses, move the US more toward its socialist template, and still on occasions bomb a Milosevic or Mullah Omar to their postfacto public disdain. Terrorists would prefer Gitmo closed, FISA and the Patriot Act repealed, our borders internationalized, our forward-shooting troops abroad sent back to the barracks, and stealthy US counter-terrorism abroad subject to UN writs.

We know right now that all those players think George Bush is a little crazy, and are not quite sure what he might do at any given moment–and that such unpredictability and polarization for them is a bad thing. Perhaps. But what we haven’t answered is why it will be good that Russia, China, the terrorists, Iran et al. will be reassured that Obama is cool and restrained, and predictably liable to talk and half the difference on all the crisis issues they raise.

Speaking for myself, I hope we at least don’t see any more American emissaries bearing gifts. We don’t have a good record at that, whether it was Ramsey Clark in 1979 in Teheran with his personally signed Jimmy Carter “Dear Ayatollah” letter, or Robert McFarland with a cake and Bible for Khomeini or Madeline Albright with her Michael-Jordan signed basketball for Kim Jong Il.