Several readers sought to clarify the question raised in this post. Basically, Iran isn’t going to run out of crude any time soon, just the ability to extract it. And, yes, I know they already have very little gasoline refining capability — but that wasn’t what Biden was talking about. This email from a reader in the biz seems the most comprehensive:

Jonah – A little late in emailing on this, and I missed the debate, but the issue with Iranian oil is investment. They probably won’t have too much trouble attracting investment. They produce about 4 million bbl/d, down from their 1974 peak (6 million bbl/d) but still up from the ’81-83 low (1.5 million or so bbl/d). If foreign investment is available, they could probably increase production to 5-6 million bbl/d in a couple of years.
They hold about 10% of the world’s conventional oil reserves – a little over 132 billion barrels. At current production levels, they’ve got a few years before they have to import… They’ve also got plenty of natural gas (#2 in reserves behind Russia). However, they are an importer of gasoline (in volume terms, they’re the #2 importer in the world) – not enough refinery capacity, but they’re working on that, too.