A shadow now hangs over Bush’s bright hopes for a second term. It’s true. David Broder says so. It is the shadow of–well, actually, Broder doesn’t complete the metaphor. I guess it’s the long shadow of unemployment, missing weapons of mass destruction, and intelligence failures. That shadow. Broder thinks this shadow is eroding confidence in Bush. His poll numbers are slipping. This is true, but it doesn’t take you very far. There is no reason to assume that the unemployment numbers next fall will be where they are now. (And anyway, I think unemployment drives a lot fewer votes than it used to do. The last time it turned the election was in 1982. But that’s a story for another day.) WMD and intelligence are great issues–for Bush. Even Bush’s declining poll numbers are a good thing for him. Both facts tempt the Democrats to do things they shouldn’t: attack Bush’s honesty, trash the Iraq war, and generally go negative. This is not to say that Democrats and Republicans shouldn’t raise real questions about intelligence. But I really don’t think Bush is in danger.