Andrew, I can understand your skepticism but I think Jim’s metaphor is well-chosen. The Kyoto bath* is still quite full, but Blair has now pulled the plug. Support for Kyoto is draining away (see comments from New Zealand, Italy and even Germany in recent months) and will only continue to do so as it becomes more and more apparent that no-one is going to meet Kyoto targets except by the old-fashioned way (economic collapse). The EU is only relevant to kyoto as long as its burden-sharing agreement holds up; individual countries still remain Kyoto signatories. Once the agreement collapses, as is very likely, responsibility for shouldering the burdens defaults back to member states, complete with penalties in any future Kyoto rounds. Blair had been an outspoken champion of the targets-and-timetables approach. The fact that he is now essentially repudiating the idea that there will ever be any such thing as a Kyoto Part II is actually very big news, and Blair, like it or not, should be commended for seeing the light on this.

* Even more appropriate, considering that anyone trying to meet Kyoto targets will take a bath on it.