Iain, yes, Guido has been terrific on this, but while I’d agree with you that these scandals will probably not have much effect on the polls (partly for the reasons you give, partly because Cameron’s Tories lack much appeal), it’s worth emphasizing (I doubt you would disagree) that they are likely to further diminish Blair’s ability to control his party and thus, in the end, may mean that Blair’s departure from Downing Street will come sooner than he would otherwise have liked. Cry me a river.

No need yet to put the champagne on ice, but it could be time to buy a bottle.