Financial markets had a bad day. Stocks fell across the U.S. and Europe, with the S&P 500 losing 1.2 percent of its value and the Eurostoxx 600 shedding 1.4 percent. U.S. Treasury bonds and the yen rose, suggesting a move into โ€œsafe havenโ€ assets by investors. At Bloomberg, Randall Jensen attributes the selloff to โ€œconcernโ€ that โ€œItalyโ€™s political woes will destabilize Europe,โ€ and indeed, the yields on Italian government bonds jumped by a margin not seen in decades (yields move inverse to prices) suggesting investors think the risk of owning those bonds has skyrocketed.

The necessary caveat is in order: There might be several other causes for todayโ€™s market action. But itโ€™s worth dwelling on the situation in Italy, which does seem to be a contributor. Last week, Italian president Sergio Mattarella decided to block the formation of a populist coalition government between the idiosyncratic Five Star Movement and the right-wing Northern League. Combined, the two parties won a majority of votes in Marchโ€™s parliamentary elections, giving them the opportunity to form a coalition government. But this month, the coalition decided to appoint Euroskeptic economist Paolo Savona as its finance minister, at which point Italian bonds began to sell off โ€” and Mattarella intervened. Citing โ€œthe uncertainty about our position in the euro,โ€ which he said โ€œhas alarmed Italian and foreign investors,โ€ the president blocked the appointment of Savona.

Markets donโ€™t seem convinced that Mattarella has saved the day. Also in Bloomberg, Ashoka Mody identifies a potential reason. When new elections eventually are held, voters, angry with a Europhile technocratic establishment that refuses to take their concerns seriously, may flock to the M5S and the League in even higher numbers. So, Mody argues, โ€œin trying to preserve European orthodoxy, [Mattarella and his advisers] may unleash destructive forces that they canโ€™t control.โ€ Real interest rates in Italy are being held down โ€” for now โ€” by the European Central Bank, but with a stagnant domestic economy, any further rise in rates could lead to a recession. According to Mody, โ€œMattarella may well have set in motion a financial crisis from which it will be hard to pull back.โ€

If youโ€™re a political leader, this saga makes a good case study in why you shouldnโ€™t base your decisions on the whims of the bond market: It might not react as you hoped.