I noted last week how economic intellectuals are studiously ignoring the lesson of the euro project โ one they actually seem to have learned, thatโs not just limited to the right, that unaccountable international policymaking has big problems โ when it comes to the Brexit debate. Now, you can recognize that supra-national governance is a pretty bad, economically destructive idea and still oppose Brexit. There is a possibility of reforming the EU, and the uncertainty about the Brexit aftermath is huge.
But if thatโs your position, you need to be honest about the status quo and how bad it is. Not everyone is: At an event I attended recently in Washington, a longtime, widely respected Republican foreign-policy/international-economics figure whoโs anti-Brexit was talking about how to assess the success of the EU, and suggestions that itโs a real mess from which Britain may want to extricate itself even if the costs are fairly high.
He said (to paraphrase), โso Brexit proponents say Europeโs economy is doing poorly โ well, everyoneโs economy is doing poorly.โ
This is true in a sense, since the U.S. recovery has also been lackluster. But itโs a remarkably different perspective from what youโd generally get from the foreign-policy/economic elite. They know quite well that Europeโs recovery from the financial crisis has been awful, and noticeably worse than the U.S.โs (and othersโ). Yet that insight goes out the window when it comes to the Brexit debate.
And they know that boosting the European growth rate will involve not just better monetary policy (hamstrung by the ECB, not the EU), but also reforms to all kinds of awful regulations at the European and national level that will make its labor markets, e.g., look more like the U.S.โs. Whether or not these reforms are more or less likely with or without Brexit, itโs just unfortunate how willing anti-Brexiters are, in the course of making their case, to ignore insights theyโre otherwise happy to apply.






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