The BBC has just updated its exit poll in a way that suggests the Tories might scrape very close to a majority. The pound remains very weak.
There is, of course, chatter about the possibility of Corbyn as prime minister, albeit heading a minority government. If he is able to pull off that feat, then I’d expect a re-run of 1974. In the election held in February of that year, Labour emerged as the largest party in parliament, and after a brief hiatus formed a minority government. There was, however, a sense (at least as I remember it) that Labour had a degree of momentum behind them. That turned out to be accurate. A second election was held in October the same year. Labour then managed to secure (even if only barely) an absolute majority. They were to remain in power for nearly five turbulent years. Momentum matters.
Some other points to note:
The prospects of another Scottish referendum have receded. Labour is taking votes away from the Scottish National Party. The less fragmentation on the Left, the better it is for Corbyn’s party. Meanwhile, the Tories, interestingly, are making some gains in Scotland too, a tribute, not least, to the remarkable Ruth Davidson (on the left of the party and a Remainer, both not so incidentally), their leader in that country.
Looking at London, note how Labour has increased its majority from 17,000 to 34,000 in Tooting, a result that only underlines the party’s strength in the capital. There was also a massive swing away from the Tories in Putney (although the Conservatives retained the seat), and the Conservatives have lost Battersea (not a surprise under the circumstances of the night). London could weigh very, very heavily on the final result, not in a good way for the Tories.
Overall turnout seems to have been somewhat higher — that’s good for Labour.
Assume for a moment that the Conservatives are able to hang onto power. Then ask yourself whether they will be in a position to force through the sort of ‘hard Brexit’ for which May has been arguing. As I might have mentioned before around here, ‘hard Brexit’ is as hard as its name suggests (if not more so), not something easy to work through with a large majority and even more difficult with a small one, let alone as a minority government. Then consider this: the former UKIP voters who have rallied to the Tories mainly want hard Brexit, but many Conservative MPs do not, including newly-elected (perhaps) Scottish Tories and, a group of possibly pivotal fellow travelers from Ulster. And then consider this, the two-year countdown to Brexit has already been triggered.
And I’ve just heard Nigel Farage, former leader of UKIP (which has been crushed) raise the possibility of a second EU referendum.
Yes, it’s a mess.
Off to dinner now, but the possibly related @astuttaford may tweet as he sips on his hemlock.