Way back in February, Quin Hillyer wrote of the possibility…

RATHER THAN PROVIDING UNSTOPPABLE momentum to any one candidate, in other words, the widespread voting on Feb. 5 could serve to keep all three “major” candidates and even a couple of minor ones alive. Nobody could claim a mandate, the vitriol would continue to grow, and the dissatisfaction already being voiced by conservatives might take on pandemic proportions.

The frontrunners have changed, but this is still correct, mutatis mutandis. By contrast, I had been of the opinion that the Romney strategy was the correct one — that the Feb. 5 overload would make the early contests more signficant, since no one can afford to campaign in all of the states that would hang in the balance on that day. That might still be true if Romney were still on track to win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. I’ve lost confidence in that notion.

I would just add this additional historical info to my piece today, which is a more detailed (although by no means comprehensive) look at the state-by-state delegate math. After losing a few early primaries, Bob Dole locked up more than 1,900 delegates in 1996, mostly because there was no longer any doubt after his Super Tuesday sweep of seven key states. He simply outlasted everyone — a winning strategy because there was a whole lot of campaign left over after Super Tuesday. Dole won every single primary after that (although if memory serves I think that Missouri might have been steered to Buchanan in a state convention — perhaps someone can help me with that one).

In contrast, Rudy’s campaign needs to burst forth on a single day, perhaps after winning just one early state — Florida. No matter what happens, Giuliani will not seem inevitable on Feb. 4, right before almost everyone votes.

More than 1,300 delegates (more than half) will have been doled out (with the caveat that some are decided later in conventions) by the time Super Tuesday is over. Voters will act in a double-blind, not knowing what other states are going to do. The chances for GOP voters in late states to unite around one dominant candidate are thus diminished.