An e-mail:

I wouldn’t compare Ratzinger to Howard Dean (for any number of reasons, generally beginning with sanity). Your e-mailer had the right idea, but the wrong comparison. Think of the papal conclave as the world’s greatest brokered political convention. Ratzinger is the Bob Dole — the safe front-runner pick from the point of view of the Cardinals. He’ll keep JPII’s conservative beliefs and will generally be a less exciting extension of JPII’s legacy. In a convo floor fight, the more votes that are taken, the less likely the front-runner will win. Eventually, people begin to look elsewhere in an effort to bust the logjam. It would be no different in the conclave. The Cardinals realize that voting for a week wouldn’t be the greatest PR and if Ratz doesn’t win in the first two ballots today, he is cooked. It took three days for the Cardinals to turn to the unknown Wojtyla.
My guess is that if Ratz doesn’t win in the first two ballots today, the Cardinals will begin to look elsewhere.