Here:

Washington smarties will tell you that only 15 House seats are ever truly in play every two years, thanks to gerrymandering. This is the world, comfortable and eternal, that all politicians want (even politicians in the minority, though they would like to be in the majority, prefer stasis to uncertainty). But an old friend, who is smarter than all the smarties, told me not to believe in the Nirvana of gerrymandering. “When the American people want to move, they will just go,” my old friend said.
John Shadegg (R.-Ariz.) agreed with Old Friend when he entered the contest for House Majority Leader. When Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.) stepped down, pending investigation into his staff’s connections with crooked lobbyist Jack Abramoff, the instant front-runner to replace him was House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R.-Mo.), with John Boehner (R.-Ohio) running second. Mr. Shadegg thought, however, that both men were too much a part of the Republican old guard to represent a clean break. They were a new dab of styling gel, when what the G.O.P. needed was a makeover—or, better, decapitations and fresh heads. But Mr. Blunt continues to lead, as he has from the beginning, which suggests that House Republicans think the conventional wisdom on gerrymandering is correct. For their sakes, they better be right.