David Cameron faces a big test in Britain today, probably the first real electoral test of Cameronism. Most of the country is taking part in local elections, for legislative councils of various stripes, from town councils to the Scottish Assembly. The interesting thing is that the last time the elections were held in these seats, when the tastefully named Iain Duncan Smith was leader of the Conservative Party, the Tories did very well, gaining 40% of the vote to Labour’s 26%.

So there are several tests of Cameron’s leadership today. First, can he do at least as well as IDS did, which might be difficult if he really has scared off a lot of the core vote as some suggest? Secondly, with Labour in freefall it seems, can he win seats in the North of England? If, as seems likely, he wins virtually everything in the South of England but little in the North, his claims to be a “One Nation” Tory will look rather empty. Thirdly, can he win seats from the Liberal Democrats where they hold them? This is the real test of Cameron’s “Vote Blue, Go Green” campaign, which is squarely aimed at Liberal Democrat-inclined voters. If there are no real inroads into Lib Dem territory and the Lib Dems pick up seats from Labour, then Cameron may have real trouble picking up a Parliamentary majority.

Lots of other questions to be answered as well, such as whether Scottish voters will propel the independence-minded Scottish National Party to victory “north of the border.” That could precipitate a minor constitutional crisis. ConservativeHome will be liveblogging the results as they come in.