I reached out to a bunch of veteran GOP campaign staffers, past and present, and asked them what they were hearing and seeing on the campaign trail.

In the Senate . . .

  • “Tennessee’s squared away for Blackburn, barring some huge unexpected development.”
  • “McCaskill is in deep trouble.”
  • “Conventional wisdom was that [Joe] Manchin’s vote for Kavanaugh would put the race away, but don’t write off Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia yet. The polls are tightening, Morrisey out-raised Manchin in the last quarter.” (The polls for Morrisey are a bit better lately, but I’m not sure how much the fundraising advantage will help; Manchin has near-universal name-ID, and West Virginia is not a particularly expensive state to run a Senate race.)
  • “I notice that in Indiana, [Democrat incumbent] Joe Donnelly is running ads slamming socialists, “the radical left,” and touting his support for ICE, ‘President Trump’s border wall, and praising Reagan. I wonder if voting against Kavanaugh left him needing to reestablish his centrist credentials fast.”

One GOP veteran-campaign worker was plugged in on three competitive House races in Virginia.

  • In Virginia’s second congressional district, incumbent Republican Scott Taylor looks secure against Elaine Luria. This is classified an R+3 district, covers Accomack and Northhampton counties, and includes Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, and parts of Norfolk and Hamption.
  • Up north in the D.C. suburbs in Virginia’s tenth district, longtime friend of NR Barbara Comstock faces every bit the tough race the GOP feared — these are the moderate, wealthy, suburban communities where Hillary Clinton and Democratic governor Ralph Northam ran up the large margins driving their statewide wins. Polls show Democratic challenger Jennifer Wexton with a lead, but Comstock’s overcome tough odds before. She won by 53-47 while Clinton was carrying her district, 52 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.
  • Republicans are also still nervous about Dave Brat keeping his seat in Virginia’s seventh district, which centers on Richmond’s western suburbs and stretches up to Culpeper. My GOP source says Brat’s survival hinges upon the support of Republicans who preferred Eric Cantor in Brat’s big upset back in 2014. Trump won this district, but Gillespie only won it by 3 points in last year’s governors race. The Brat campaign saw improving momentum during the Kavanaugh fight, but they expect this one to be close.