The Canadian government’s efforts to legislate national gay marriage in Canada are definitely in trouble. An article from the Globe and Mail reports that the number of MP’s prepared to vote against the government’s gay marriage legislation may be sufficient to block the bill. Much hinges on a number of undecideds coming under heavy pressure from constituents to vote no. It is too early to say anything definitive, but I can also report that, behind the scenes, a move to a bill mandating civil unions, rather than full gay marriage, is at least being considered. Even if the government backs off of gay marriage, the Canadian courts may still impose it. On the other hand, although it has never exercised it, parliament does have the power, under the Notwithstanding Clause of Canada’s constitution, to defy a court imposed nationalization of gay marriage. So the final outcome in Canada is at least in doubt. This is enormously significant. It is notable that, although Canadian polls continue to show majority support for gay marriage, constituent pressure has been heavily against gay marriage. It is possible that, after a genuine public debate, which Canada has never had, public opinion may begin to swing the other way. But the real lesson for us may be that, even in a country with a majority for gay marriage and a court system bent on bringing it about extra-legislatively, the intensity of opposition may well be sufficient to sway parliament against the change. How much more intense would be the political pressure in the United States (where clear majorities oppose gay marriage) after legalization in Massachusetts?