I don’t think so, (the ‘alternative votes’ of single issue voters are never that predictable) but here’s an interesting piece of analysis from Richard North over at the EU Referendum blog calculating the amount of potentially Conservative seats ‘lost’ as a result of the anti-EU (and, often, more than a little nuts) UKIP party. It also needs to be remembered that if the Conservatives had moved over into advocating outright withdrawal from the EU (UKIP’s position), it would have cost them far more votes than it would have won.

Nevertheless, this is yet another reminder of how ‘Europe’ continues to bedevil British politics. Blair must be praying for a French ‘non’ on May 29th.