Consumers of partisan political media, right and left, have been treated to a display of blistering heat from the commentariat in the hours since a Manhattan jury pronounced Trump guilty of the charges brought by Alvin Bragg’s office. Like no other event in this election cycle, these verdicts are likely to accelerate the process through which soft supporters of one candidate or the other become hard supporters. But that merely speeds up a process that would traditionally occur around the nominating conventions. The polls of the 2024 presidential race have shown it to be a tight contest for months, and the voters that matter in it are the voters on the margins. How will they react to the verdict?
The short answer is that no one knows. Indeed, the question may be unanswerable before the votes are counted. But we have a rough idea of what kind of voter we should be watching closely: the unlikely sort.
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